Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 26, 2014

on Thursday, March 27, 2014


When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as GfK German Consumer Climate, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Bank Stress Test Results, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 26, 2014

  • The GBP/USD pair movement will be continued directly from the level of 1.6420 in H4 chart. Moreover, this level was confirmed by the bullish market two months ago. Additionally, the price of the GBP/USD pair has been showing an upward trend at the same price which represents the weekly resistance 1 on March 26, 2014. Therefore, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.6420. Also, it should be noted that the weekly resistance 1 became the support. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to buy at 1.64820 (in the short term) with the first target of 1.6540 and further to 1.6610 in order to form double top in H1 chart.
  • The weekly pivot point will set at the level of 1.6541. 
  • The strong resistance had set at 1.6610. 
  • We expect a range about 80 pips today.
  • Furthermore, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, for that it is going to be a good place to take profit. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at the price of 1.6403.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014


 USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed's Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week's Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank's policy, and that he was "a bit surprised" by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U.S. January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index post a smaller-than-expected 13.2% on-year increase (versus +13.5% forecast), Richmond Fed's manufacturing current business conditions index fell to -7 in March, its lowest since July 2013, from -6 in February; while U.S. February new home sales fell bigger-than-expected 3.3% to 440,000 (versus 445,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and weaker USD demand on diminished expectations for earlier rate rise.

Gold wave analysis for March 25, 2014

on Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Gold price broke below the support at $1,318 yesterday and reached our next target of $1,311. Gold price has made a completed 5 wave move downwards after making an extension of the third wave. Yesterday, we were wrong in thinking the decline was over, but with the new low, there is increased chance now that we see a considerable upward bounce before the next big move down.


In the chart above, we show our preferred elliott wave count. The downward price movement is inside the downward sloping channel as show above and a breakout of this channel will confirm that the downward move from $1,391 is over. Short-term resistance is found at $1,318-25 and short-term support at $1,305-$1,300. The first target of this upward bounce we expect is the 38% Fibonacci retracement near $1,340 and then the 50% retracement.


The daily chart is bearish as Gold price has broken below and out of the upward sloping trend channel from $1,180. Price has also reached the 38% retracement and this justifies an upward bounce soon. The entire upward move from $1,180 is most probably over in our opinion and bulls should be very cautious as this could mean that the entire upward move is over, Important long-term support that should hold if we are going to see higher than $1,391 is the support levels at $1,290 and $1,260. For now we prefer to wait for the upward bounce to complete and then we will decide if it is a sell opportunity. To turn back bullish, we will need to see 5 waves up.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 25, 2014

The NZD/USD pair is moving sideways since last week. Thus, according to prior events, the price of NZD/USD pair has still been moving between the ratio of 76.8% Fibonacci retracement levels at the level of 0.8570 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 0.8503 level. Furthermore, the price opened below the ratio of 76.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (0.8570). Also, it should be noted that the resistance is set at the 0.8570 level on March 25, 2014. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.8570 with the first target of 0.8540 and resume to 0.8510, but it should be noted the double bottom is going to set at the price of 0.8501. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.8501, the market will lead to further decline to 0.8445 today or tomorrow in order to indicate a correctional movement at this level. Meanwhile, the daily chart represents a strong support at 0.8445.

USDX technical analysis for March 25, 2014

The Dollar index as mentioned yesterday has paused its upward move and is making a sideways correction. Yesterday the Dollar index pulled back lower to back test the broken wedge that was once resistance. It touched the upper wedge boundaries and bounced upwards. The Dollar index reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 79.80 is now higher. Bulls will need to hold that low and move higher. Short-term resistance is the high inside the 80.30-35 area.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 25, 2014


Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.50
R2: 142.11
R1: 140.90

Current spot: 141.37

S1: 141.19
S2: 140.90
S3: 140.43

Technical summary:

The wave ii correction is becoming more complex than first expected. The deep decline from 141.89 have to be counted as an x-wave and that means a new zig-zag correction is developing. However, the ideal target area between 142.11 and 142.50 stays intact. In the short term, we will be looking for support near 141.19 for the next rally higher towards 141.90 and into the target area between 142.11 and 142.50 before the next real downside pressure.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 141.25, stop is placed at 143.85. If you are not short in EUR yet, then wait for selling at 142.40 with the same stop at 143.85.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 25, 2014


Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6232
R2: 1.6200
R1: 1.6186

Current spot: 1.6178

S1: 1.6152
S2: 1.6123
S3: 1.6086

Technical summary:

Yesterday's rally found strong resistance at 1.6232 for a unexpected deep retracement, which best I counted as an x-wave. We will still be looking for a move higher towards 1.6450 to end wave d of the ending diagonal before the final e-wave lower towards 1.6000. In the short term, we will be looking for support near 1.6141 for the next rally higher towards 1.6188 and a break above here confirms renewed upside pressure towards 1.6232 on the way towards 1.6450. Only an unexpected break below 1.6105 will delay the upside pressure.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6145 was hit for a nice little profit. We will buy EUR again at 1.6145 with a stop at 1.6100, and place take profit at 1.6425.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 25, 2014


When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Ifo Business Climate.The US will release the economic data too such as the US-S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, US-HPI m/m, US-CB Consumer Confidence, US-New Home Sales, US-Richmond Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3904.
Strong Resistance:1.3895.
Original Resistance: 1.3882.
Inner Sell Area: 1.3869.
Target Inner Area: 1.3836.
Inner Buy Area: 1.3803.
Original Support: 1.3790.
Strong Support: 1.3777.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.3768.


Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3790 and 1.3882. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3777 and by 1.3895 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3768 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3904 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3803 and at 1.3869, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3836.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 25, 2014

USDCAD broke above the prior 1.1224 high and reached as high as 1.1279, indicating that the uptrend from 1.0182 has resumed. Further rise could be expected, and the next target would be in the 1.1500 area. Key support is at the upward trend line in the daily chart, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of the uptrend.
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